11 October 2007

Prognosticating the NLCS...

A series that matches two teams that are far off the national radar, Rockies v. Diamondbacks is one that seems to be causing a bit of consternation amongst many columnists and analysts. In hearing some of the central stats that surround this series and in looking at the participants, I'm not entirely sure why. The Rockies boast the best defensive team in baseball history (at least in looking at fielding percentage), a lineup that, one through seven, can compete with the best in baseball, and a pitching staff that has improved as the season progressed and young, power arms were called upon to fill holes created by injury and, nominally, is the equal of the Diamondbacks staff. The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, feature a team with the worst batting average in the NL, scored the third fewest runs, boasts an ace who, though dominant, struggled in six starts against the Rockies during the regular season, and ended with a negative run differential that was frequently cited as a statistic that should have left the Diamondbacks as a playoff outlier. Again, the pick is easy as the Rockies should win this series going away. While the Diamondbacks have defied statistics all year, they will not be able to overcome the Rockies and the wave of momentum upon which they ride.

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