What Happens Now???

In a fitting conclusion to the college football regular season, #1 Missouri and #2 West Virginia both lose, throwing the BCS into utter and complete chaos. Already, the talking heads are dissecting the various situations, trying to determine who will be going to the national championship game. One of the solutions posited is:

* Blow up last week's ballot and have the pollsters start over, ranking the teams based on who they believe to be the top teams.

If this is the case, can you insert Ohio State into the top spot, as so many are assuming? Ohio State's one loss this season came at home to 3 loss Illinois. Their final appearance of the season came in an uninspiring win against a disappointing Michigan. It almost seems as if people are begrudgingly placing Ohio State into the national championship game while casting a skeptical eye at their disappearance in last year's BCS championship.

Further, how do you then decide how to rank the remaining teams? People keep stating that USC and Georgia are hottest teams.

USC, since losing to Oregon, has played 4 games. They handled Oregon State. They struggled to top a Cal team that has absolutely gone in the tank. They dominated Arizona State on Thanksgiving, giving the impression that most people seem to be carrying with them right now. USC largely struggled against an injury decimated UCLA team today, doing little to cement the reputation that many seem to hold.

Georgia, as many have documented, did not play in today's SEC championship game due to their two losses earlier this season. One was at home to a South Carolina team that has lost it's final five games of the season. The other was a blowout loss at Tennessee. Georgia wrapped their season by putting up a rather unimpressive win that was not wrapped until the late moments of the game at Georgia Tech. So, I'm unsure where the assertion that they are one of the hottest teams in the land comes from. It would seem that they are riding on the wide ranging belief that the SEC is head and shoulders the toughest conference in the land and that wins over Florida, Auburn, and Kentucky to end their SEC slate is enough to elevate them.

In both cases, I'm not sure that either team is as hot as people seem to believe. At the very least, they are not unquestionably the two top teams based on their current level of play.


* It would seem that, based on the fact that most seem to assume that Ohio State is a given for #1, that the contenders for the #2 slot are Georgia, Kansas, Virginia Tech, LSU, Oklahoma, USC, and West Virginia. Yes, West Virginia just lost to unranked Pittsburgh. But, if you exclude West Virginia for that reason, you would think that Oklahoma, LSU, and USC would have to also be excluded for their losses to unranked Colorado, Arkansas, and Stanford, respectively. The only reason West Virginia isn't in the argument is because their loss took place today. I understand the recency argument and I would personally remove them but, based on a review of the TOTAL record, they're either in or removing a lot of teams along with them.

Since it seems that most have removed West Virginia from the argument, you have to also remove Oklahoma, LSU, and USC from the debate. That would leave Georgia, Kansas and Virginia Tech. Georgia didn't reach their conference championship game. Neither did Kansas.

Does this leave Virginia Tech standing alone? (I'm such a homer.) The argument against the Hokies is that they were shellacked by LSU and could not be in the national championship game ahead of LSU. It's a valid argument. But, consider that VT's two losses were to teams that were, at the time, ranked #2 in the country. The makeup of the football team is drastically different from the team that lost at LSU, with a two QB system, a reconstituted offensive line, and a defense that has rebounded to again finish in the top 10 in the nation. They avenged their second loss by defeating BC in the ACC Championship game.

How do you weigh the damage of the respective losses of each team? I could attempt to analyze this but I'm not sure I'd get any sleep tonight. Plus, I'm not paid to do this. Yet another argument for a comprehensive playoff system. Not a plus one though. Good gracious, there would be as much confusion trying to determine the top 4 this season as there is the top 2. A playoff would be oustanding, allowing so many of these issues to be settled on the field, creating a hallmark event for college football and putting money is everyone's pockets (since the decision to go to a playoff will eventually be the result of a comprehensive economic breakdown of the profit the event would generate. Sounds like a job for Ben Bernanke and the Fed.).

I obviously would love to see the Hokies in the national championship. Had they been able shut down Matt Ryan on that fateful rainy night, they'd be making reservations for New Orleans. Since they were unable, they are now part of the BCS morass. And unlikely to overcome their loss to LSU, who has already squandered two appearences in the top two yet is the likeliest candidate for selection to face Ohio State.